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<nettime> PP2P: Massively Distributed Microcrime? (edited highlights)
richard barbrook on Fri, 17 Aug 2001 16:30:33 +0200 (CEST)


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<nettime> PP2P: Massively Distributed Microcrime? (edited highlights)


PP2P: Massively Distributed Microcrime?

Gartner, Inc.
Strategic Planning, SPA-13-7605
N. Jones
Research Note
9 July 2001


Personal peer-to-peer applications will entertain and inform individuals
but pose new risks to owners of intellectual property.

......

Personal P2P (PP2P) - The Next Step.

During the next decade, we will see mass adoption of personal computing
devices, such as super phones, personal digital assistants (PDAs), toys and
e-books.

.....

The opportunity and challenge arise when individuals can install personal
P2P applications on their personal platforms. Not only will adjacent
devices be able to communicate, but a sufficient density of PP2P devices in
a region will allow devices to contact with others outside their direct
networking range by using intermediate devices to forward messages, much as
the Internet does today...

Potential applications include:

....

* Media Piracy. A P2P application running on personal devices could
distribute pirated media widely and quickly in places containing a high
density of potential recipients, such as schools and clubs. The music
industry was scared by Napster, but at least it knew who it could sue. PP2P
applications provide nobody to sue and no single point at which to
intercept or prevent such activity.

.....

Inhibitors will include:

....

* Vendors or governments might be pressured by vested interests - such as
the music industry - to apply some form of PP2P controls at the device
level; however, we forecast that this will not prove successful (0.8
probability) Overall, we do not expect that such factors will prevent PP2P
systems from becoming a major technical and social trend.

Who will create and use PP2P applications?

....

The first adopters are likely to be technically adept affluent
professionals, followed by teenagers, the latter probably driven by
applications such as dating, messaging and media piracy.

Who wins, and who loses?

The winners will include individuals, who will gain new ways to interact,
share information and play games. Other winners will include organizations
that can profit from communicating with groups of adjacent individuals. The
losers will include organizations that might benefit from controlling,
monitoring and intercepting communications - such as law enforcement
agencies and owners of small to midsize units of intellectual property. The
music industry, in particular, will be exposed to greater piracy risks with
fewer opportunities for control. It seems likely that systems such as PP2P
will make it impossible to police copying of media, forcing intellectual
property owners to concentrate on encryption, rather than prevention.

....


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