Ivo Skoric on Mon, 1 Oct 2001 04:27:53 +0200 (CEST)


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<nettime> ivogram (x3): islam, saudis, bosnia


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"Ivo Skoric" <ivo@reporters.net>
     Re: Islamic world trapped in historical impasse
     Re: Ground Zero and the Saudi connection
     More on Telling a Big One

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From: "Ivo Skoric" <ivo@reporters.net>
Date: Sat, 29 Sep 2001 16:53:43 -0400
Subject: Re: Islamic world trapped in historical impasse

We are probably going to see failure of both Pakistan and Saudi 
Arabia in the next chapter of this development. This will go down 
like the Eastern Europe went down once, state by state. Saudi 
Arabia and Pakistan had the most potential to go down like former 
Yugoslavia - violently.
ivo

date sent:      	Sat, 29 Sep 2001 12:32:17 -0400
send reply to:  	International Justice Watch Discussion List
             	<JUSTWATCH-L@LISTSERV.ACSU.BUFFALO.EDU>
from:           	Daniel Tomasevich <danilo@MARTNET.COM>
subject:        	Islamic world trapped in historical impasse
to:             	JUSTWATCH-L@LISTSERV.ACSU.BUFFALO.EDU

Saudia Arabia is the spiritual home of Wahabism that is driving
bin Laden and his followers. Hopefully there will be more
focus on Riyadh than Kabul.


   We in the West have based our political strategy in the Islamic world
   on an alliance with Saudi Arabia (not to mention hitching our
   economies to its vast oil reserves). But there is a timebomb ticking
   away. Bin Laden aims to topple the Saudi regime and turn Arabia into
   the base for his assault on the West. Even if we kill bin Laden, the
   struggle to transform Saudi into a cockpit for Wahabite extremism will
   continue.


Daniel
(article not for cross posting)
-------------------------------------------------------------

   The Scotsman         September 28, 2001, Friday

        ISLAMIC WORLD TRAPPED IN HISTORICAL IMPASSE

   BY: George Kerevan

   FORGET Afghanistan.     The key to Islam is Saudi Arabia. Forget the
   debate over the rights and wrongs of America's support for the state
   of Israel. The hatred towards the United States felt by the young
   Islamic intellectuals who look to Osama bin Laden for leadership is as
   much to do with its backing of the current Saudi regime as it has to
   do with the occupation of the West Bank. And our ultimate ability to
   reconcile the Islamic world with Western-style modernisation, on which
   might depend the peace and prosperity of the entire globe over the
   next century, lies in Riyadh not Kabul.

   Let us begin by trying to understand the central impetus behind the
   friction between the Islamic world and the West that led to the
   atrocities in America on 11 September. Palestine is a totem of this
   friction, not its cause. The fiercely proud Islamic community -
   roughly a third of humanity - is trapped in a historical impasse. For
   it is the West and Western values that have triumphed globally: our
   economic model, our science, our individualism, our notion of women's
   rights and our sexually-charged consumer culture. Leave aside for a
   moment quite how this has happened, but the Islamic - and particularly
   the Arab - world is an economic failure. The average per capita yearly
   income of the Islamic nations is now barely GBP 2,000 - a tenth of the
   rich West. In 1950, Egypt and South Korea were peasant economies on a
   level pegging. Today, capitalist Korea, without Egypt's cheap
   electricity, is five times as rich.

   This reality is what hurts Islam's young intellectuals who fly planes
   into the icons of international capitalism. Worse, the Arab countries
   tried for a generation between the Fifties and the Eighties to
   modernise (aka create Western industrial economies) and failed. The
   head of this movement was the charismatic Gamel Nasser in Egypt.

   Nasser believed in socialist central planning which only resulted, as
   it did in Eastern Europe, in bureaucracy, waste and corruption.
   But Nasser had one blindingly important insight. He knew you had to
   bridge adopting Western modernisation (albeit skewed by Dr Marx) with
   some ideological balm to soothe the realisation that the Islamic world
   was thereby admitting its economic and cultural dead-end. Nasser
   sought to overcome this psychological barrier by advocating a militant
   Arab nationalism premised on the eventual political unification of the
   Arab world.

   Nasser's mythological Arab unity dissolved in conflict between the
   various military cliques who seized power across Islam in an attempt
   to build the chimera of Arab socialism (and waste their oil revenues
   in the process). In the Western democracies, we did not grasp what
   would happen with the eclipse of Nasserism. Sadly, Islam's young
   intellectuals easily flipped from Parisian Marxism to religious
   fundamentalism - not such a chasm to leap. Admitting you have "failed"
   twice in a row is hard on personal identity, especially in a martial
   society. It's the kind of mental crisis that can resolve itself too
   easily in martyrdom.

   So across Islam, the bright young university men - not Dr Marx's
   proletariat - have sought a psychological retreat from what they
   perceive as Western cultural victory by adopting a purist, modern
   version of Islam called (but not by them) Waha-bism.

   Enter Saudi Arabia, the spiritual home of Wahabism. This cult was
   created by Mohammad Ibn Wahab at the end of the 18th century. Wahab
   led an extreme fundamentalist revival of Islam based on its own texts
   - for example, Wahabis think that the Iranian Shi'ites, who revere
   different Islamic historic writers, are a heretical sect founded by
   Jews to destroy Islam. Wahabism, unlike mainstream Islam, also
   relegates women to an inferior role. Osama bin Laden is a devoted
   Wahabite, as are the Taleban.

   Ibn Wahab joined forces with the Arabian Arabs against the Turkish
   Ottoman Empire. In the 19th century, one of these, Ibn Saud, adopted
   Wahabite doctrines as his official creed. During the First World War,
   Britain aided the Saudi family to eject the Turks and take control of
   the Arabian peninsula. Then came oil riches.

   For today's passionate young Wahabites, their creed represents a
   revivalist purity and reaffirmation of their great heritage. But it is
   also a "successful" model: for it was the pure Wahabite faith that
   drove out the Turks and won independence without recourse to Western
   ideas (if you forget Lawrence of Arabia).

   But the new Wahabites have an enemy beyond the West - the current
   Saudi regime itself. Extremists such as bin Laden and his ilk see
   their spiritual home as now corrupt and pro-Western.

   We in the West have based our political strategy in the Islamic world
   on an alliance with Saudi Arabia (not to mention hitching our
   economies to its vast oil reserves). But there is a timebomb ticking
   away. Bin Laden aims to topple the Saudi regime and turn Arabia into
   the base for his assault on the West. Even if we kill bin Laden, the
   struggle to transform Saudi into a cockpit for Wahabite extremism will
   continue.

   The reality of the Saudi economy is that without oil revenues it is an
   utter basket-case waiting to melt down, precipitating the overthrow of
   the existing royal family and its replacement with a fundamentalist
   regime. For the past 20 years, Saudi economic growth on average has
   been a pathetic 0.2 per cent per annum. The national income per head,
   once as large as that of the United Sates, has dropped remorselessly
   to today's third-world $ 7,000.

   Many of the 15 million Saudis have not noticed this catastrophic
   economic failure because the government keeps them in uneconomic jobs
   subsidised by massive foreign borrowing. The country has turned from
   being a net creditor in the Eighties to being a net debtor on a large
   scale, possibly running into several hundred billion dollars.

   The cash empties down two drains. Firstly, a vast network of
   inefficient state-owned industries, from petrochemicals to services,
   that makes the old Soviet Union look entrepreneurial. The other
   subsidy black hole is the all -powerful monarchy itself. This is
   centred on the remaining 24 sons of the kingdom's founder, Ibn Saud,
   who died in 1953. Most are in their sixties and seventies, leaving the
   dynasty ageing dangerously. As much as 40 per cent of government
   revenues go to the family.

   But Saudi Arabia has one of the fastest-growing populations in the
   world. Some 110,000 Saudis come into the workforce each year and only
   40,000 find jobs. Unemployment stands at 14 per cent, and 20 per cent
   among young Saudi men. Mix unemployed youth, official corruption and
   Wahabite extremism and you have all the makings of the situation that
   overthrew the Shah of Iran. In May, gangs of Saudi youths rioted at
   the new Feisaliyya shopping complex in Riyadh.

   Here is our problem. We in the West have no policy for creating
   free-market democracy in the Islamic countries - which essentially
   means destroying Wahabism. Worse, the linchpin of our anti-terrorism
   coalition is an ultra -conservative but wobbly Saudi Arabia, the
   official home of Wahabism.

   A week after the attack on New York, Saudi's ailing King Fahd flew to
   Switzerland for medical treatment. He's still there. Back home, there
   is talk of friction between Crown Prince Abdullah (aged 77) and
   defence minister Prince Sultan (aged 76). Keep your eyes on Riyadh.

     _________________________________________________________________

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From: "Ivo Skoric" <ivo@reporters.net>
Date: Sat, 29 Sep 2001 16:04:13 -0400
Subject: Re: Ground Zero and the Saudi connection

Yes, this is true. There is that subtle distinction between Saudis 
and Romanovs. While they both presided over decadent 
monarchies with idle, runaway, mostly foreign educated elites, 
whose offspring peculiarly started to romantically identify itself with 
the majority of deprivileged 'subjects' - Romanovs, at least, did not 
finance their own mortal enemies.

Saudis want and need the US to protect them from their own 
creation, while not wanting to part with it. This is a very tough 
proposition. It is like an alcoholic that demands help but wouldn't 
give up the bottle. How about creating WA (Wahhabis Anonymous) 
and a 12 steps program for overcoming the religious zealotry 
addiction?

ivo

date sent:      	Fri, 28 Sep 2001 18:33:43 -0400
send reply to:  	International Justice Watch Discussion List
             	<JUSTWATCH-L@LISTSERV.ACSU.BUFFALO.EDU>
from:           	Andras Riedlmayer <riedlmay@FAS.HARVARD.EDU>
subject:        	Re: Ground Zero and the Saudi connection
to:             	JUSTWATCH-L@LISTSERV.ACSU.BUFFALO.EDU

> ancient feudal monarchy to stay in power so long by bribing
> everybody around into protecting them. Meanwhile, their youth built
> very dangerous beliefs, that are now slowly coming back to
> threaten the old monarchy - not very different than the relation
> between Bolshevism and Tsarist Russia - only that


The Saudi monarchy is unlike the Romanovs (who were anything but promoters
of revolutionary ideas).  As both Schartz and Tariq Ali point out, the
Saudi monarchy is still publicly espousing Wahhabism and financing its
propagation abroad.  But the young Wahhabi radicals - most of whom get
their training and their extreme ideas in Saudi-financed fundamentalist
mosques and madrasas in Pakistan and elsewhere - despise the monarchy
as having betrayed the Wahhabi ideals in exchange for Western protection
and Western decadence.  "Running dogs" who must be "cleansed" along
with the West, the ultimate source of corruption.

If one had to search for a historical parallel, I'd say the relationship
btw the Saudi monarchy and the Islamist radicals is more analogous to
that btw the old-guard Communists in China and the Red Guards who turned
upon their aging mentors, denouncing them as corrupt "running dogs" of
Western imperialism who had to be done away with. Some millions of deaths
later, the Cultural Revolution fizzled out.  Let's hope this one will
not be as costly.

Andras

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From: "Ivo Skoric" <ivo@reporters.net>
Date: Sat, 29 Sep 2001 16:04:08 -0400
Subject: More on Telling a Big One

I think the people in the Balkans are simply jealous that media 
attention went elsewhere (David Rohde, the journalist hero of 
Srebrenica, is in Northern Afghanistan, for example), so they want 
to bring all those cameras back. So, they keep finding bearded 
Arabs among themselves. Maybe Osama Bin Laden and Radovan 
Karadzic should, indeed, switch hiding locations to confuse 
international forces. Those were not able to dig Radovan out of his 
hide-out, despite having the military control over the region in which 
that hide-out is placed. Good luck with finding Osama.
ivo


------- Forwarded Message Follows -------

Bin Laden loyalists said heading to Bosnia

By Daria Sito-Sucic

  
SARAJEVO, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Dozens of militants linked to Saudi-born
radical Osama bin Laden's organisation are trying to flee Afghanistan for
Bosnia, the Interior Minister of the country's Muslim-Croat federation said
on Friday. 

The ministry said it was ready to intercept those seeking refuge, presumably 
with local sympathisers, and had already taken measures with the United 
Nations policing mission and the NATO-led peacekeeping force in Bosnia. 

"We have got information from a reliable source that 70 people, who are 
involved in bin Laden's organisation, are preparing to leave Afghanistan for 
Bosnia, thinking it is now the safest place for them," minister Muhamed Besic 
said. 

Bin Laden has become the world's most wanted man after being named by the 
United States as the prime suspect for this month's suicide attacks on the 
World Trade Center in New York and The Pentagon near Washington. 

After the attacks local media revived allegations that Bosnian wartime 
authorities had issued a passport to bin Laden but this has been repeatedly 
denied. Some media have accused past Bosnian governments of backing foreign 
fighters with links to bin Laden. 

Some foreign Muslim volunteers, known as Mujahideen, were given passports in 
gratitude for fighting with Bosnia's Muslim-led army in their 1992-1995 
struggle against Serbs and at times also against Croats, but the government 
puts the number at only 420. 

The suffering of Bosnia's Muslims in the war and perceived Western sloth in 
coming to their aid became a rallying cry for hardline Islamic groups across 
the world. 

But the presence of hundreds of militant Arabs became an embarrassment for 
Bosnia's Muslim authorities after the war, with the United States 
conditioning aid on their departure, fearing that some were planning 
extremist actions. 

Besic said Bosnia's role as a transit centre for illegal immigration between 
East and West had enabled some criminals and terrorists to enter the country. 

"There are well-founded suspicions a number of criminals and terrorists used 
this way to enter Bosnia," he said. 

WAVE OF ARRESTS 

Bosnia's federation recently launched a crackdown on foreigners with Bosnian 
citizenship who were wanted abroad. It was intensified after the September 11 
suicide attacks. 

Besic said four Arabs were wanted by Interpol on terrorism charges. Two 
Egyptians were extradited to France, one Turk was handed to Germany on drugs 
charges and the remaining two Egyptians will be extradited to Egypt in 
following days. 

Besic said one of the Egyptians, also wanted by Croatia for allegedly taking 
part in a bomb attack, would not be extradited to Bosnia's neighbour due to 
Zagreb's failure to hand over a suspect in a car bomb attack on a Bosnian 
minister. 

Besic said that his ministry, acting upon information from Interpol and some 
foreign embassies in Sarajevo, had been tracking 13 people who were "under a 
well-founded suspicion of being linked to terrorism." 

He said local Bosnians and also foreigners with Bosnian citizenship were 
among the suspects.Bosnia's 1995 Dayton peace deal split the country into a 
Muslim-Croat federation and an autonomous Serb republic under a weak central 
government. 

11:02 09-28-01

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