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<nettime> Egyptian and Tunisian riots were driven in part by the spike in global food prices |
=46ood prices were driven up by extreme weather and high oil prices January 30, 2011 http://climateprogress.org/2011/01/30/egyptian-tunisian-riots-food-prices- extreme-weather-and-high-oil-prices/ Political unrest has broken out in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and other Arab=20 countries. Social media and governmental policies are getting most of the=20 credit for spurring the turmoil, but there=E2=80=99s another factor at play. Many of the people protesting are also angry about dramatic price hikes for= =20 basic foodstuffs, such as rice, cereals, cooking oil and sugar. That=E2=80=99s from the NPR story today, =E2=80=9CRising Food Prices Can To= pple=20 Governments, Too.=E2=80=9D This summer=E2=80=99s extreme global weather raised fears of a =E2=80=9CCom= ing Food=20 Crisis,=E2=80=9D as CAP=E2=80=99s John D. Podesta and Jake Caldwell warned = in Foreign=20 Policy: =E2=80=9CGlobal food security is stretched to the breaking point, = and=20 Russia=E2=80=99s fires and Pakistan=E2=80=99s floods are making a bad situa= tion worse.=E2=80=9D =20 Earlier this month I discussed how, in fact, =E2=80=9CExtreme weather event= s helped=20 drive food prices to record highs.=E2=80=9D Back then, experts were worrie= d about=20 food riots. Now they are happening. UPDATE: The anti-science, pro-pollution crowd are going flat-earth over=20 this post because I point out that leading political experts say the Middle= =20 East rioting is driven in part by the dramatic rise in food prices, which=20 the agricultural experts say is driven in large part by oil prices and the= =20 extreme weather we=E2=80=99ve seen in the last few months. Of course, the = climate=20 science experts have been saying for a while now that the extreme weather=20 is driven in large part by human emissions =E2=80=94 see Terrific ABC News = story:=20 =E2=80=9CRaging Waters In Australia and Brazil Product of Global Warming=E2= =80=9D and=20 Munich Re: =E2=80=9CThe only plausible explanation for the rise in weather-= related=20 catastrophes is climate change.=E2=80=9D See also Russian President Medved= ev:=20 =E2=80=9CWhat is happening now in our central regions is evidence of this g= lobal=20 climate change, because we have never in our history faced such weather=20 conditions in the past.=E2=80=9D =E2=80=94 NYT: =E2=80=9CRussia Bans Grain = Exports After Drought=20 Shrivels Crop=E2=80=9D I have some more comments on this at the end, but t= he=20 analysis as written here stands. The Washington Post reported on the connection between food prices and=20 Tunisian violence in mid-January, in a piece headlined, =E2=80=9CSpike in = global=20 food prices contributes to Tunisian violence=E2=80=9D: The state of emergency in Tunisia has economists worried that we may be=20 seeing the beginnings of a second wave of global food riots. Battered by=20 bad weather and increasing demand from the developing world, the global=20 food supply system is buckling under the strain. This month, the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) reported that= =20 its food price index jumped 32 percent in the second half of 2010 =E2=80=94= =20 surpassing the previous record, set in the early summer of 2008, when=20 deadly clashes over food broke out around the world, from Haiti to=20 Somalia=E2=80=A6. The price of grains began to rise last fall after fires in Russia wiped out= =20 hundreds of thousands of acres of grains and heavy rain destroyed much of=20 Canada=E2=80=99s wheat crop. The problems were followed by hot, dry weather= in=20 Argentina that devastated the soybean crop of the key exporter. This month,= =20 floods in Australia destroyedmuch of the country=E2=80=99s wheat crop. Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali on Thursday vowed to reduce the= =20 price of staples such as sugar, milk and bread, but the pledge wasn=E2=80= =99t=20 enough to placate the thousands of protesters who mobbed the capital,=20 Tunis, on Friday to demand his ouster. The country=E2=80=99s prime minister= ,=20 Mohammed Ghannouchi, has appeared on state TV to announce he is assuming=20 power. See also the 1-15-11 Guardian story, =E2=80=9CJordanians protest against so= aring=20 food prices: Protesters angry over high food costs and unemployment call=20 for the prime minister to step down, in an echo of Tunisian=20 demonstrations.=E2=80=9D And then we have Egypt. Robin Niblett, director of the Chatham House, was interviewed at Davos=20 (click here) and saidthe Egyptian riots =E2=80=9Cwere driven partly of cour= se by=20 the rise of food prices.=E2=80=9D NPR had a long story on the subject today, =E2=80=9CRising Food Prices Can = Topple=20 Governments, Too=E2=80=9D (quoted at the top), which notes: Rising prices a= re=20 =E2=80=9Cleading to riots, demonstrations and political instability,=E2=80= =9D New York=20 University economics professor Nouriel Roubini said during a panel=20 discussion. =E2=80=9CIt=E2=80=99s really something that can topple regimes,= as we have seen=20 in the Middle East.=E2=80=9D And, the Davos experts warn, higher prices could hurt consumers and derail= =20 the economic recoveries under way in wealthier countries. In large part, the food-price crisis reflects the simple law of supply and= =20 demand.The supply of food has been diminished by bad weather in many=20 crucial crop-growing areas of the world. Russia, Ukraine and Argentina have= =20 had severe droughts, while Pakistan and Australia have had massive=20 flooding.At the same time, demand for food has been rising as people in=20 fast-developing countries, such as India and China, have been buying more=20 groceries. In addition, production and transportation costs have been driven up by the= =20 rising price of oil. Energy insecurity and climate instability have now become key factors in=20 food insecurity, which in turn has become a key factor in toppling=20 governments. And that=E2=80=99s without even considering the impact of the= nation=20 and the world=E2=80=99s wildly counterproductive strategy of growing crop-b= ased=20 biofuels (see =E2=80=9CAre biofuels a core climate solution?=E2=80=9D and = =E2=80=9CLet them eat=20 biofuels!=E2=80=9D and =E2=80=9C=E2=80=9CThe Fuel on the Hill =E2=80=94 The= Corn Supremacy=E2=80=9C). It=E2=80=99s hard to see how oil prices won=E2=80=99t keep rising, absent a= nother deep=20 global economic downturn (see World=E2=80=99s top energy economist warns: = =E2=80=9CWe have=20 to leave oil before oil leaves us and German military study warns of peak= =20 oil crisis and Peak oil production coming sooner than expected). And the extreme weather we are seeing is only going to get worse. The=20 country=E2=80=99s top climatologist, NASA=E2=80=99s James Hansen, recently = explained: Given the association of extreme weather and climate events with rising=20 global temperature, the expectation of new record high temperatures in 2012= =20 also suggests that the frequency and magnitude of extreme events could=20 reach a high level in 2012. Extreme events include not only high=20 temperatures, but also indirect effects of a warming atmosphere including=20 the impact of higher temperature on extreme rainfall and droughts. The=20 greater water vapor content of a warmer atmosphere allows larger rainfall=20 anomalies and provides the fuel for stronger storms driven by latent heat. It=E2=80=99s likely half the years this decade will be hotter and more extr= eme than=20 2010 =E2=80=94 and most of the years in the next decade. =E2=80=9CBread and Circuses=E2=80=9D (panem et circenses) is the Roman phra= se denoting the=20 superficial effort of maintaining public approval through cheap food and=20 entertainment. When the food isn=E2=80=99t cheap, though, the strategy col= lapses,=20 perhaps along with the entire global Ponzi scheme. Those who think that the serious impacts of climate change =E2=80=94 and ou= r inane=20 energy policies =E2=80=94 on the world economy and U.S. national security a= re=20 decades away are simply not paying attention. UPDATE: The climate ostriches at NewsBusters =E2=80=94 and anti-science ex= tremist=20 Michelle Malkin=E2=80=94 have actually attacked this post for daring to sug= gest=20 that climate change plays any role whatsoever in the higher food prices=20 that numerous experts say are contributing to the unrest. The point, of=20 course, is not that global warming is causing the unrest or that there=20 aren=E2=80=99t major underlying causes. The question is why specifically now have the Egyptians and Tunisians=20 rioted after decades of anti-democratic rule? Certainly one can ignore the= =20 experts and say that it is a complete coincidence that the rioting occurred= =20 as food prices hit record levels =E2=80=94 in spite of the fact that the la= st time=20 there was this kind of rioting globally food prices were at record levels,= =20 which is precisely why experts were predicting that record hide food prices= =20 would lead to riots. Now the question is, why are food prices are at=20 record levels? Again, reality pretty much speaks for itself here. Extreme= =20 weather is a major contributing factor =E2=80=94 and our top climate scient= ists say=20 global warming has contributed. # distributed via <nettime>: no commercial use without permission # <nettime> is a moderated mailing list for net criticism, # collaborative text filtering and cultural politics of the nets # more info: http://mail.kein.org/mailman/listinfo/nettime-l # archive: http://www.nettime.org contact: nettime@kein.org