Re: <nettime> merkel, macron: europe on its own

[Felix Stalder <felix@openflows.com>]

On 2017-06-03 22:08, Keith Hart wrote:

> Brian, that the US is all washed up again, with Germany and China
> the likely replacement and Felix's notion that the last six months
> have been decisive in some way.

Dear Keith,

thank you for your structural long-term view. Very sobering. What
stroked my optimism was that in the wake of the US governments
decision to drop out of the Paris Climate accord, two things became
visible.

First, the the economic/technological transition towards renewable
energies is in full swing. Perhaps the tipping point has been reached
where this development has become irreversible in the sense of forming
a set of interlocking engines of economic activity. The commitment
of several US states and cities to continue on the path of the Paris
accord seems like a clear indication. India cancelling new coal plants
(permitted under the accord) because they are no longer economical is
another one.

The other point is that Europe seems to have the some political
personnel at the moment that sees this transition as an opportunity.
It's too early to tell what the appointment of Nicolas Hulot as French
minister of the environment means, that it's at least an indication
that the new government would like to take this seriously.

And, for the US, the might provide the ground to break coalition of
finance, extractive industries and nationalists that carried Trump to
victory.

Non of makes the structural dimensions go way, but perhaps it offers
to articulate them in a different way. Apart form the US, no major
block is self-sustainable.

Behind all of this, however, is a more general question whether green
capitalism can work at all. Or if we, indeed, as failures keep piling
up, slide towards war.

Felix





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