From James Blitz, Financial Times, 6th March 2019
If Theresa May’s deal is passed by the House of Commons next
week, the UK will enter a new era called “Brexeternity”, says former Labour
minister Denis MacShane, who in an article for the LSE website
coined the term to describe the years ahead in which Brexit just goes on
dominating British politics and public life.
Many Britons seem to assume that once the UK is out of the EU —
whether via a deal or no deal — that will mark the end of the tortuous Brexit
story. A widespread assumption is that Brexit will be over and the country can
go back to focusing on the issues that really matter to people — above all, the
lack of public funding for police, schools, social care and local government that
make the headlines every day.
But there are good reasons for thinking it won’t turn out like
that. Mrs May’s Brexit deal finalises the EU-UK divorce settlement. But
the future trade relationship, as set out in the Political Declaration, is
a tabula rasa on to which no firm commitments have been carved
by either side.
Britain’s departure — if it happens — will simply mark the start
of yet more years of negotiation between the EU and UK covering every sector of
the economy, and yet more debate in Westminster and Whitehall about what kind
of Brexit people want. example, paragraph four says that “the future
relationship will be based on the integrity of the Single Market and the
Customs Union and the indivisibility of the four freedoms.” But it
simultaneously commits to “the ending of free movement of people” between the
UK and Europe and vice versa. MacShane asks: “Where is the negotiating guru who
can reconcile upholding and ending free movement in the same agreement?”
Or take paragraph 17. Both sides “agree to develop an ambitious
economic partnership, respecting the integrity of the Union’s Single Market and
the Customs Union.” But they go on to recognize “the development of an independent
trade policy by the United Kingdom beyond this economic partnership”. How will
this circle be squared by hitherto undiscovered geniuses in Whitehall and
Brussels? It is impossible to say.
First, as they prepare to vote next Tuesday, MPs ought to ask
themselves once more whether it really is in the UK’s interests to sign up to a
“Blind Brexit” with an unknown destination.
Second, the
hard Conservative Brexiters of the European Research Group are pretty
comfortable with the ambiguity. There are growing signs that the ERG is looking
to back the deal. But as Nick Kent writes on the InFacts blog: “This apparent
Damascene conversion to May’s deal hides a clever calculation: once the UK is
out of the EU, Brexit will be a reality but everything else will be up for
grabs”.
Brexit Day will quickly be followed by Mrs May’s departure from
office. In the subsequent Tory leadership contest, the ERG will want to install
a prime minister who can drive the UK towards the hardest possible Brexit. If
the PM pulls it off, business — and much of the country — will breathe a sigh
of relief that a decision has finally been reached. But many Britons will be
aghast to discover that getting Mrs May’s deal across the line is only the
beginning.
A massive dereliction of duty on the part of the opposition.
Sack Corbyn. (KH).