Steven Carlson on Mon, 5 May 1997 12:51:36 +0200 (MET DST) |
[Date Prev] [Date Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Index] [Thread Index]
<nettime> Connected: Push This |
Dear Nettimers - I'd like to volunteer this Connected column for Z K P 4. I'm based in Budapest and write for a general audience, including business users. I mostly write about the development of the internet medium, from a business and user perspective. Have Fun ------------------------------ Connected: Push This by Steven Carlson; 5/5/97 http://www.isys.hu/connected ------------------------------ Push technology promises to revolutionize the way we use the Internet. It probably will, but not in the ways the Push prophets tell us. Push is the latest fad in an industry obsessed with the New. Push gives technology journalists something to write about. Push pleases traditional media companies and advertisers, because it makes the Internet sound more well behaved, more like a medium they already understand and love: television. According the prophets, Push fixes the limitations of today's internet as an advertising medium, and paves the way for the Great Convergence of the net with television. The World Wide Web is a pull medium. Each time you view a web page, you actually "pull" the data from a web server across the net. Pull means you wait. Pull also requires you to make a conscious decision each time you visit a site. Media companies don't like pull media; they want captive audiences and stable demographics. Push effectively sends the "web site" to your desktop while you sleep. Unlike the web, with push publishing you don't have to wait for files to download. Once you subscribe to a push channel, the publisher's server sends you updates, as often as required, during off hours. This could make Push an ideal vehicle for publishing frequently updated information, such as sports scores, news briefs, financial figures, and particularly software. Another attractive feature of Push, in the mind of publishers, is that viewers can customize the information they receive by volunteering their interests and preferences. Publishers can further require subscribers to offer demographic information (income, occupation, education, location, whatever) to use in targetting advertisements. To the media industry, this sounds like television on steroids. To privacy advocates this is a potential nightmare. Nobody knows what the users think about push publishing, because nobody is using yet Pushing. On the internet, debates about Push reminds me of teenage boys discussing sex in a locker room: Everybody's talking, but nobody is doing it yet. Except there's one important difference: Most teenage boys approve of sex. As opposed to the tradional media industry, many internet publishers are sharply critical of Push. An insightful discussion is taking place at a site called Stating the Obvious <http://www.theobvious.com>, where author/editor Michael Sippey has gathered essays from several well-known web publishers. One of the sharper wits is freelance critic Rebecca Eisenberg, who expressed these reservations about targetted push advertising: "If the content providers decide my preferences based on stereotyped generalities about my age, gender and income level, and then send me advertisements for sales at Marshall's Clothing Outlet, discounts on brand-name cosmetics, and cooking equipment and recipe books, I will not only turn off their access to my computer, but I will throw a stink about their sexist and condescending assumptions in every venue I can." "On the other hand," Eisenberg continues, "if the content providers specifically ask me my preferences, or else take an accurate look at what I do already tend to purchase and/or read, and thus send me announcements or advertisements regarding technology industry news, intellectual property lawsuits filed, unions that have organized, media changes and mergers, and sales on stereo equipment, computer supplies and/or weapons, I will be greatly benefited by their services and make use of them as often as I find convenient. " I agree with Eisenberg that Push will succeed if it demonstrates real value to readers. Unfortunately I just don't trust conglomorates like Turner, Disney, the News Corporation and Time/Warner to respect the privacy of my personal data. Call me paranoid, but Push strikes me as too invasive, too much like infomercials, phone solicitors and junk mail. I already get plenty of information I don't want. Whatever our misgivings, the next generation of web browsers will introduce Push to the masses. (More exactly, the people coming online this year will use the Push-enabled browser provided with their startup kit. Diehards like me will upgrade. However our statistics indicate that Joe User, who started with an earlier version of Netscape or Internet Explorer, probably won't upgrade unless he has to.) Unfortunately, the internet masses may have problems using Push. Push publishing pretty much assumes you have a full-time connection to the internet, which means dialup users (most of us) will suffer. Push also requires significant bandwidth, and this cost will surely find its way to the consumer. These shortcomings could punch holes in the demographics the publishing industry needs to attract serious advertising budgets. Media companies, however, have their eyes on a difference audience: television. Microsoft just bought a company called WebTV, with an eye to leveraging Microsoft software to the 98% of US homes with televisions. Plugging the internet into every television would probably up end the media market, but this too far away for my crystal ball. It's not going to happen this year or next. Where Push seems destined to win, in the conceivable future, is corporate intranets. There, you're almost guaranteed to have a full-time LAN connection, and your friendly network adminstrators (and management) are eager to augment, filter and supervise your information diet. It sounds scary, but it's going to be a big business. According to a survey conducted by Cowles/SimbaNet, 87% of Fortune 500 companies are planning intranets, which will become a $5.4 billion business by the year 2000. "Intranet" is still just a buzzword in Hungary, but we should expect to see demand here, too. Another promising use for Push is in software distribution. Microsoft and others are developing schemes to let network managers upgrade and manage their users' software, which promises to slash IT costs. Software developers could end up selling push software subscriptions, transforming the software industry and creating new markets. So, I do think Push has a future, but I don't see Push as a panacea for the media industry. Push raises a hornet's nest of concerns about the abuse of private information. Push demands too much bandwidth. I think we will see useful and profitable Push publications in a narrow band of market niches, but I don't think we're talking mass market demographics. The dark horse is television, but the Great Conversion isn't happening yet. For now, television audiences already have a phenomenally successful medium: they have TV. Feedback? Please direct your opinions to the Connected Forum <http://www.isys.hu/connected/forum> or write me personally <steve@isys.hu>. I write these columns twice a month for a local paper. If you'd like to receive them by email send a message to <connected-on@isys.hu>. No other commands required. Steven Carlson is Chief Strategist at iSYS Hungary ---------------------------------------------------- Copyright (c) 1996. Permission granted to redistribute this article in electronic form for non-profit purposes only. Contact me <steve@isys.hu> for commercial reprint rights. ----------------------------------------------------- This article will appear in the Budapest Sun on Thursday, May 8 --- # distributed via nettime-l : no commercial use without permission # <nettime> is a closed moderated mailinglist for net criticism, # collaborative text filtering and cultural politics of the nets # more info: majordomo@icf.de and "info nettime" in the msg body # URL: http://www.desk.nl/~nettime/ contact: nettime-owner@icf.de