<nettime> Weekly Analysis December 6, 1999

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STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - December 6, 1999


By The Internet's Most Intelligent Source
of International News &	Analysis
http://www.stratfor.com/
_________________________________________

WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR WORLD?

U.S. Strives to Maintain Key Role in Persian Gulf
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/specialreports/special24.htm

Iranian Investment in Colombia Raises Suspicion
http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/120299.ASP

Is the United States Shifting Its Policy on Borders?
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9912032330.htm
__________________________________________

STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
December 6, 1999


Philippine President Decries Analysis


Summary:

A couple of weeks ago, Stratfor forecast that Philippine President
Joseph Estrada might not finish out his term. This week, the
forecast was reported in the Philippines and stirred a huge
controversy: Estrada accused Stratfor of being allied with his
enemies, the Filipino stock market dipped and politicians debated
whether or not Estrada should go. Ultimately, our analysis was
quite correct and we stand by it. But the Filipino debate gives us
cause to examine our role in disseminating intelligence on the
Internet. Normally, Stratfor doesn't talk about Stratfor; this
week, we will.


Analysis:

Stratfor does not normally talk about itself. We are constantly
deluged with e-mail demanding to know who we are, who funds us,
what our qualifications are and what our hidden agenda is. We
usually ignore these demands. First, we find the world infinitely
more interesting and prefer to talk about it rather than ourselves.
Second, we elect to let our product do our talking for us.
Everything we've published remains on our web site permanently. We
expect to be judged by our work, not our resumes.

But we are nearing the end of the year and are preparing new
forecasts for the upcoming year and decade. And as we move forward
we have to consider our role in disseminating intelligence on the
Internet. Normally, intelligence is secret. But as an open-source
intelligence company, we publish our findings, day in and day out,
on the World Wide Web, for all to see. The very act of doing so has
recently put Stratfor in the midst of controversies, such as our
work examining alleged atrocities in Kosovo 
[ http://www.stratfor.com/crisis/kosovo/genocide.htm ] and our recent
series on Russia 
[ http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/countries/Russia/russia2000/default.htm ].

Just last week we were squarely in a very public controversy in the
Philippines. What made the confrontation all the more strange was
that while the country's press was filled with denunciations and
defenses of our analysis, hardly anyone else in the world was aware
that anything was going on. This leads us to reflect on two strange
but real phenomena. First, there is the ability of organizations on
the Internet to have unpredictable impact around the world. Second,
there is the strange isolation in which such incidents take place.

Let's begin at the beginning. Last month, Stratfor began receiving
reports out of the Philippines about the possibility of a coup
against President Joseph Estrada. Also, people outside the
Philippines who were considering investing there wrote to us and
asked if we knew anything about a potential coup. We put some
people to work checking out the situation. After analyzing all
sorts of information, we came to the conclusion that the
probability of a military coup was extremely low.

We did, however, find that the president's political position was
deteriorating. We concluded that even without a coup, it was
difficult to see how Estrada could survive politically until 2004,
when his term expires. Since the constitution provided for the
removal of the president and since the country is no stranger to
extra-constitutional crises, we concluded that Estrada's days in
office were numbered. The entire analysis can be found at
[ http://www.stratfor.com/asia/specialreports/special98.htm ].

The report was quickly picked up by the Philippine press, some of
which have rocky relations with the president. Several pro-Estrada
companies and government entities had, for example, pulled their
advertising from the Philippine Daily Inquirer during a prior
controversy. On Nov. 19, Estrada met with the paper's owners and
editors and on Nov. 22, the ad boycott was lifted. Stratfor's
analysis of the Filipino situation was, coincidentally, published
on Nov. 22. All seemed to be quieting down a bit. However, on Dec.
1, the Inquirer used the Stratfor piece to level a new blast at
President Estrada,
[ http://www.inquirer.net/issues/dec99/dec01/news/news_5.htm ]. It 
used Stratfor and its forecast to raise the possibility that the
President would not serve out his full term.

Instead of merely letting the matter drop, Estrada himself stoked
the controversy. He initially brushed it all aside in a radio
interview later in the day. However, later in the broadcast, as
reporters insisted on a response, Estrada accused Stratfor of being
in the pay of his domestic opposition. In the senate, Estrada
supporters also charged that the report was likely financed by the
opposition. Estrada's political advisor, Angelito Banayo, went so
far as to claim that the Filipino "politico-economic elite" were
behind the Stratfor report.

Things still should have died down. They didn't. On Thursday, Dec.
2 other Philippine papers began weighing in. Commenting on an
impending cabinet reshuffle, some senators suggested that they in
fact have the constitutional right to oust Estrada if they think
him unfit for service. Not letting well enough alone, the president
attacked Stratfor again. The stock market fell 30 points or nearly
2 percent on Thursday, amidst political jitters. On Sunday, the
president charged that a wide array of enemies was unfairly trying
to link him to the Marcos family.

For the record, Stratfor is not in the pay of Estrada's opponents
and has had no contact with them whatsoever. In fact, what was
truly strange last week was that Stratfor received not a single
phone call or inquiry from the media - or anyone else in the
Philippines. The debate may have been triggered by Stratfor's
report but it quickly became secondary to the political struggle.
The opposition used the occasion to beat up on Estrada and the
president - whatever he said about Stratfor - was merely hitting
back at his opponents. We were like the furniture being thrown
around in a barroom brawl, a strange experience.

We continue to feel that our analysis of the prospects of the
Estrada administration is accurate - perhaps even more so than we
thought. The controversy is not so much the result of our work as
genuine political unease in the Philippines. But in a larger sense,
the debate in the Philippines underscores the curiosity of
disseminating intelligence on the Internet.

It demonstrates the disconnect that is peculiar to this medium.
Inside the Philippines: controversy. Estrada's opponents saw the
Stratfor piece as an opportunity to attack the president. The
larger attack on the president was legitimized by a source on the
Internet, not the other way around. Estrada sought to counter-
attack by asserting that rather than being a foreign news source,
Stratfor was merely a tool of his domestic opponents. But outside
the Philippines: blissful ignorance. The debate over Estrada has
hardly become the subject of world discourse.

Stratfor is no stranger to controversy. But an interesting term
from physics comes to mind: the Heisenberg Principle, which holds
that the act of observation effects and changes the observed
phenomenon. In political affairs, the act of observation does not
necessarily change things. But the act of disseminating analysis of
what was observed can have an impact, if it is widely disseminated
and taken seriously.

Traditionally, the sensitive stuff of intelligence forecasting is
secret - and as a result the impact of intelligence has been
diluted. It has been limited to policymakers, intelligence
specialists, generals and carefully managed leaks. Instead,
Stratfor publishes it on the World Wide Web every day. But our
forecasts are decidedly public. And in that realm, it is entirely
possible for intelligence analysis to be swept up into the events
that are being analyzed. It is clear to us: the analysis is
informed by the reality of the situation. We view ourselves as
outside, disinterested observers.

In this case, the various factions in the Philippines confused a
forecast with a desire. More precisely, the Inquirer used our
forecast to attack the president and then, President Estrada
confused us with participants in Filipino politics. Now, Filipino
politics is particularly intense and frequently personal. It is
immediately assumed that anyone commenting on the Philippines has a
vested interest.

And this is what is important about this incident. The Internet
allows information to diffuse around the world. Stratfor can follow
events in the Philippines and other countries in a way not possible
before. It can also comment on those events. Countries like the
Philippines are not used to having outsiders show interest in their
internal affairs unless they intend to profit from that interest,
or unless there is an intense crisis. The idea that someone without
anything to gain should comment on Filipino politics prior to a
crisis is an alien concept not only in the Philippines, but
throughout much of the developing world, which is used to being
ignored or manipulated, but not observed.

Yet that is precisely what the Internet has made possible.
Stratfor, without a crisis or an interest at stake, made a
forecast. We think it correct, but only time will tell. But that
isn't really the point. The point is that there is a new
architecture to the global information system that will allow many
Stratfors to comment on many countries that are used to being
ignored. That changes the way politics is done in many of these
countries. We hope the learning curve is steep and quick.



(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/


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