The RagasReport on Fri, 27 Jul 2001 17:25:10 +0200 (CEST)


[Date Prev] [Date Next] [Thread Prev] [Thread Next] [Date Index] [Thread Index]

[Nettime-bold] THE RAGAS REPORT - Finding Long Term Winners Among the Box Makers


Title: RagasReport
Knowledge Capital For Next Economy Architects
Editor: Matt Ragas
"Now read by over 25,000 next economy leaders"


In This Issue  
  Commentary: PC Stocks- Finding Long Term Winners Among the Box Makers
More Knowledge Capital: Scrappy Exodus and Sinking JDS Uniphase
Quote of the Week: Gates sees software getting even "more important" and "magical" in the future.

ENTER TO WIN A FREE PALM VIIx! - www.LessonseFront.com

Download the free Introduction to Lessons From the eFront, the new e-business battle guide by RagasReport editor Matt Ragas and enter to win a free Palm VIIx handheld. It's the book that no Next Economy leader should be without!

Learn the secrets to e-business success now by visiting and sharing the link below:
http://www.lessonsefront.com/webpage/download.htm



This Week's Commentary

PC Stocks- Finding Long Term Winners Among the Box Makers

Seemingly everyone in the tech sector these days likes to happily dance around and repeatedly proclaim to all who will listen that - "the PC is dead!"

Of course, I have to step to the plate and disagree. The PC is of course still very much alive.

While it is true that handheld devices and mobile phones will increasingly become important communication, information and commerce devices, the desktop PC isn't going anywhere. It's definitely here to stay.

Whether the naysayers like it or not, the desktop computer will remain at the center of our networked digital universe for many, many years to come. Try to really use MS Word or Quicken on a cell phone or print a document from your handheld. It's just not going to happen.

What is true is that for the most part- in the US particularly- the PC is rapidly entering a slow growth replacement cycle phase. This helps explain why worldwide PC shipments fell almost 2 percent in the second quarter, the first drop since 1986.

Unlike most investors, this drop in PC shipments doesn't immediately signal to me that this is a group without a future. While the entire sector is experiencing PC shipment slowdowns and margin woes, the opportunity for growth in servers, laptops, storage and services are still very real.

Regardless of how this group is trading right now, this is not going to end up being a sector where everyone loses. With this in mind, I decided to take a look this week at Gateway, Dell and Apple Computer- three of the purest plays on the battered desktop computer sector.

Let's see what I found out.


Gateway [GTW]

Gateway has unfortunately become the epitome of "hard times" in the PC sector. Even the re-appearance of Gateway founder Ted Waitt as CEO back in February, coupled with a major management shakeup have yet to get this fallen cow-spotted PC giant back on track. If anything, Gateway now looks more lost and confused then ever before, having announced yet another new restructuring plan last week. The PC maker now intends to turn its 300 retail outlets into "local technology resource centers" (whatever that means!) and to restructure its business units.

Gateway reported second quarter earnings (before restructuring charges) of $9 million or 2 cents per share, a penny more than Wall St.'s already lowered expectations. More importantly, GTW warned that profits and sales would be lower then expected for the remainder of the year. Gateway has effectively backed off its earlier claim that it would once again be profitable during the second half of the year. This is particularly disappointing news since Gateway already fired 3,000 workers and closed 27 stores this year. Sounds like poor cost controls.

As expected, investors have reacted violently to Gateway's problems over the past year. At a recent price of $9.67 per share, GTW remains stuck within a few nickels or so of its 52-week low. With $1 billion in cash, Gateway retains a strong balance sheet and a well-known brand, but not much else at this point. Having been unable to develop into a major enterprise player, Gateway remains hostage to weak US consumer PC demand. Ted Waitt may be a great fighter, but the reality is that he re-joined a firm that has failed to evolve with the marketplace.

Ragas Rating: HOLD

 

Apple Computer [AAPL]

With its global PC market share only in the mid single digits, sometimes it's easy these days to forget all about Apple Computer [APPL]. That's a big mistake. Apple relishes being the "think different" dark horse. Buoyed by an incredibly loyal cult following, Apple may in fact be the best insulated of the major box makers amidst the current PC spending wreck. Having only four product lines - two desktops and two notebooks- have clearly helped keep APPL's operations more focused and streamlined that its larger, more diverse competitors.

For the most recent quarter, Apple reported earnings of $61 million or 17 cent per share, which beat consensus estimates by two cents. Sales dropped 19% to $1.48 billion during the period as expected. On a more positive note, year-over-year education related sales rose 7 percent and Apple remains on track to open 23 additional new Apple retail stores by the end of December. Perhaps most importantly, unlike most Wintel box makers that are being lured into vicious price wars, Apple's gross margin remains strong at 29 percent.

While investors have spent the past few weeks worrying about if Apple will meet the low end of its full year revenue estimates, this is one PC player still with a bright future. Think long term and focus on the bigger picture. APPL has an incredibly loyal user base, strong gross margins for a PC maker and is sitting on a $4 billion cash horde. At a recent price of $19 per share, Apple is trading for less than one times next year's projected sales, and for less then half its cash value. Time to step up to the plate.

Ragas Rating: BUY


Dell Computer [DELL]

Michael Dell and Dell Computer are a lot like Rocky Balboa. They love to dance around the ring, take their punches and get everyone bloody in the process. Price wars are beautiful for Dell. By relying on its lean and mean direct sales model, Dell has been able to actually gain PC market share this year, while all of its major rivals have been forced to give up ground. Not only does Dell now hold the top spot in the PC market, but Dell now expects to hold the #1 position in the US server market this quarter as well.

While Dell has had to announce layoffs and the consolidation of some facilities earlier this year, the company remains incredibly solid on the financial front. Dell reiterated recently that it remains on track to report profits of 16 cent per share (in-line with analysts' estimates) for the second quarter. While Dell's overall gross margin of 18% or so isn't particularly exciting, the firm's diversification away from pure PC sales is impressive. Dell appears to have a laser focus on growing the server, networking and services side of its business.

Analysts currently expect Dell to report mid-teens earnings growth over the next five years. Even with everyone down on the PC sector long term right now, I believe that Dell can do this. After all, Dell remains on the right track to shedding its "PC company" tag all together. At a recent price of $28 per share, though, DELL shares look pricey. I want to be a believer, but DELL's forward PE of plus 30 (based on what I believe to be optimistic earnings estimates!), suggests that the firm is near fully valued already in my book.

Ragas Rating: HOLD

p.s. Free is good, right? Well, then take the next thirty seconds or so to visit the website for Lessons From the eFront and enter to win a FREE PalmVIIx at:
http://www.lessonsefront.com


Buy It Here!
More Knowledge Capital

 

TELECOM ARENA STILL NEEDS FURTHER PURGING: As regular readers of this report know by now, I've been very hesitant to do any buying in the telecom sector of late. The purging is clearly not over yet. From next generation carriers to networkers and component manufacturers, the entire group still looks overbuilt and a lot like a bloated person suffering major indigestion problems. It's not a pretty site to watch. Even with this being the case, I was still shocked by how negative and decidedly bearish new comments from optical giant JDS Uniphase [JDSU] was yesterday evening.

Not only did JDSU take a staggering $45 billion write-down, but the firm also announced that it intends to fire 16,000 workers or roughly two-thirds of its entire workforce. Two-thirds! Imagine what this does for company morale. JDSU also used the earnings announcement to lower revenue guidance for the sixth time this year and sees no end to the current telco-spending slump. The firm even declined to provided revenue guidance for the current quarter. I know it may be tempting to go bottom feeding among optics players right now, but I continue to believe that now is not the time.


Buy It Here!

EXODUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK: Last week I went against the grain and suggested that severely battered Web hoster Exodus [EXDS] looked attractive at current levels, even with a declining cash position and over $3 billion in debt. This week, after Exodus reported second quarter results that were slightly better then estimates, I still feel exactly the same way. The gambler in me loves the potential upside to this situation. If you believe Exodus will be a survivor- as I do - then the stock looks incredibly tasty right now at around a buck a share.

Exodus continues to believe that it will achieve free cash flow by the third quarter of next year and that it has enough cash on hand to get there even without landing fresh financing. The Web hosting giant ended the second quarter with $600 million in the bank. It is also worth noting that Exodus believes it is currently winning roughly 70% of its showdowns with other Web hosters for new non-dot com customers. This is a strong win-rate that hardly suggests to me that large enterprise customers believe that Exodus is heading towards bankruptcy any time soon.

Quote of the Week


"We think software will be more important and magical the next decade than in the last 25 years. Driven by some of the vision we had during the last 25 years, we now have the opportunity to implement scenarios that weren't possible before."

-- Comments made this week by Microsoft founder and chairman Bill Gates regarding the long-term outlook for the software sector.




 
July 27, 2001

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION:

Share this report with your friends, associates and colleagues. The subscription to the report is always FREE so pass it on or signup below!

TO SUBSCRIBE - Please sign-up by visiting: http://www.ragasreport.com and entering your email in the sign-up box on the front page.

TO UNSUBSCRIBE- Please click on the unsubscribe link that can be found at the very end of this report.

ADVERTISING INFORMATION: Want to reach the movers and shakers of Web St. and Wall St. all in one place? Then take the next step. Over 25,000 Next Economy leaders read our report each week. Get your marketing message in front of leaders- not followers! For advertising information please contact: AdRates@RagasReport.com.

Comments? Questions? Agree or disagree with our ramblings? Then we want to hear from you. In dire need of e-strategy and consulting services? Then contact us today: Matt@RagasReport.com.

About Matthew W. Ragas: Ragas is President and Chief Analyst of Matthew Ragas & Associates, an Orlando, FL based strategic advisory and venture development firm. He was previously the founding editor of Raging Bull and is the author of the new critically-acclaimed e-business book Lessons From the E-Front from Prima Publishing.


DISCLAIMER:
The RagasReport and Matthew Ragas and Associates, are not a registered Investment Adviser or a Broker/Dealer. Readers are advised that the report is issued solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy. The opinions and analyses included herein are based from sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Readers are urged to consult with their own independent financial advisors with respect to any investment. All information contained in this report should be independently verified with the companies mentioned. In addition, we receive no compensation of any kind from any companies that we mention in this report.




Copyright (c) 2000-2001, Matthew Ragas & Associates.
(http://www.ragasreport.com) All Rights Reserved.




Powered by List Builder
Click here to change or remove your subscription